While 2016 ‘felt’ very eventful for investors, the defining feature of markets in 2017 for many has been the lack of volatility.*
Does this mean that there were no ‘episodes’ during the year? And does this lack of volatility mean that it was harder to generate returns… Read the article
Here’s a short video I recorded with my multi-asset colleagues Steven Andrew and Tristan Hanson, in which we debate the highlights of 2017 and look ahead to 2018. After a year that has turned out to hold fewer surprises than many might have expected, what lies in store for financial… Watch the video
Last month, Tristan Hanson and I made a proposal for a sovereign wealth fund (‘SWF’). It triggered a substantial debate. How would it operate in practice? Are we trying to fund investment or earn an equity risk premium? How do we address problems associated with state-ownership? How… Read the article
One should probably be wary of writing yet another article on Bitcoin. If the number of press articles and blog posts was an indicator of bubbles, then there would be little debate. Aside from the fact that it is now the middle of winter, Bitcoin would certainly satisfy all the… Read the article
The annual ‘Black Friday’ phenomenon is well known for producing some unusual human behaviour. Consumers rush to take advantage of lower prices, displaying the classic biases associated with group dynamics: myopia, and a fear of missing out. We often see people in a crowd doing things that… Read the article
Behavioural Finance Markets
As we have mentioned repeatedly on this blog, the change in market mood since the pivotal moment in the middle of 2016 has been staggering.
Extreme pessimism has given way to strong gains in equity markets, while the prevailing narrative has shifted from ‘secular stagnation’ to ‘synchronised global… Read the article
I made what is turning into an annual pilgrimage to the brilliant Kilkenomics festival in Kilkenny, Ireland, last weekend, this time along with Eric Lonergan and Tristan Hanson from M&G’s multi-asset fund management team.
En route, we met some clients in Dublin and then took the opportunity to set the… Read the article
The flattening of the US yield curve has inspired much commentary and hand-wringing in certain quarters lately. The concern is overdone.
Looking back at periods of rising US policy rates over the past 30 years, history would suggest there is nothing remarkable about today’s level of long-dated bond yields relative… Read the article
We are told that markets are ignoring news flow today in the hunt for short term gains. In part this seems to be an issue of salience. The news which ‘feels’ more important is that which grabs the headlines: Korean missile tests, the unwinding (or not) of QE,… Read the article