There’s been some clamour around everybody’s favourite UK-related subject this week: Brexit and politics are once again grabbing the headlines.
Yesterday, the US yield curve became inverted. The yield on three-year Treasuries was temporarily (blink and you’ll miss it) lower than that of their two-year counterparts. This is, apparently, huge.
Many are worried because an inverted yield curve has frequently been a sign of upcoming… Read the article
I received the following chart from a broker earlier this week. It plots the trailing 12-month price return on the US stock market versus a survey of activity in the US manufacturing sector, where a score above 50 indicates expansion and vice versa.
The broker’s conclusion was straight-forward, “if you… Read the article
It is quite staggering how much sentiment on the global economy can change. In the middle of 2016 asset prices suggested that we’d never see meaningful growth again, by the end of 2017 ‘synchronised expansion’ was the order of the day.
Today the prevailing argument is that the world is… Read the article
The summer felt quite volatile, with lots of headlines about trade agreements, elections and the like, as well as some big price moves in Turkey, Argentina, and Italy.
“The world…has witnessed an extensive history of financial bubbles, expanding credit, and subsequent crises…We put inaccurate beliefs at the centre of the analysis of financial fragility”.
One of the major market trends so far this year has been the outperformance of the US equity market relative to most other global regions. But with some identifying US moves as ‘the longest bull market in history’ and a prevailing sense that the US economy is… Read the article
A major study released last month found that non-retired UK investors are saving a higher proportion of their income for retirement than many parts of Europe. Before we start celebrating, there are two important points to consider.
First, estimates are that the UK still… Read the article
Last week saw the manifestation of these challenges. The Turkish Lira decline on Friday was among the largest one-day currency moves of the last ten… Read the article
The Bank of England (BoE) is widely expected to raise rates in the UK at today’s monetary policy committee, potentially marking the first time the base rate has been above 0.5% since 2009. Could this be the start of a transition to a rising rate environment similar to that seen… Read the article