The Bank of England (BoE) is widely expected to raise rates in the UK at today’s monetary policy committee, potentially marking the first time the base rate has been above 0.5% since 2009. Could this be the start of a transition to a rising rate environment similar to that seen… Read the article
Real interest rates are an anchor for the valuation of all assets. The classical theory of interest holds that as a ‘discount rate,’ they embed the market’s relative preference for cash today over cash in the future.
The US cash rate is arguably the best sense we… Read the article
There are a couple of reasons why we don’t believe that forecasting short term events is a sustainable investment approach.
First, it is very difficult: how can one have a sustainable forecasting ‘edge’ over and above what is currently priced into the market on something like an election result?… Read the article
I made what is turning into an annual pilgrimage to the brilliant Kilkenomics festival in Kilkenny, Ireland, last weekend, this time along with Eric Lonergan and Tristan Hanson from M&G’s multi-asset fund management team.
En route, we met some clients in Dublin and then took the opportunity to set the… Read the article
Each year at Jackson Hole policy makers and economists around the world meet to discuss the issues of the day. Attention on policy makers has intensified to extremes since the financial crisis and it is unsurprisingly Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi who grabbed the headlines from the… Read the article
Last month apparently represented the twentieth anniversary of the start of the Asian crisis, and five years since Draghi’s ‘whatever it takes’ speech. This week apparently marks the ten-year anniversary of the financial crisis.
These events make great ‘hooks’ for content in the press, blogs,… Read the article
From the Financial Times this month:
“The tranquillity of Wall Street’s ‘Fear Gauge’ continues to baffle investors, given the market uncertainty”
Financial commentators and journalists – who are just as prone to herding as investors themselves – have brought attention to the ‘volatility paradox,’ the apparent disconnect… Read the article
Humans like to think they know more about things than they really do. This is perhaps more true in finance than elsewhere, because the abundance of data lends itself to analysis, pseudo-science, and experts.
One of the data points that draws most attention is the US non-farm payrolls, which is… Read the article
A week on, where are we?
Friday 24th June feels like a long time ago – so much has happened since then. Sterling has dominated the headlines here in the UK. It has risen a little from the initial post-Brexit low of 1.312 against the dollar, but is still down… Read the article
Markets have recently experienced some heightened volatility, which at times has been explained by commentators as being due to the changing expectations around the outcome of the UK referendum. Last week, equity markets globally experienced losses, while ‘safe haven’ assets, such as G7 government bond markets, rallied. The biggest currency… Read the article