The cliched response to the UK election result was that Brexit uncertainty had been removed; this was what explained the immediate rally in Sterling and UK stocks, and a sell-off in Gilts.

But only a couple of days later we found ourselves straight back in a world of volatility:

“When there is a firm deadline, the agreement is often delayed until the very last minute before the deadline.”

This Read the article

As Theresa May remarked in her resignation speech, her successor will face the same challenge of finding consensus over Brexit within Parliament. So far Westminster has been able only to express what it doesn’t want, and has failed to coalesce around a way forward. The path ahead remains as uncertain… Read the article

While markets were closed in Japan, Korea, Thailand and the UK yesterday, stock markets in other regions ‘plunged’ (there’s that word again) on a re-emergence of trade war fears.

Domestic Chinese markets were the hardest hit, with some impact on neighbouring countries.

The source of the moves,… Read the article

There’s been some clamour around everybody’s favourite UK-related subject this week: Brexit and politics are once again grabbing the headlines.

Given the extent of coverage I thought it worth recapping (briefly) how our view on these matters is formed and how we might begin to assess the relevance of… Read the article

I received the following chart from a broker earlier this week. It plots the trailing 12-month price return on the US stock market versus a survey of activity in the US manufacturing sector, where a score above 50 indicates expansion and vice versa.

The broker’s conclusion was straight-forward, “if you… Read the article

Markets reacted sharply to the weekend’s news that ongoing attempts to form a coalition government in Italy had collapsed after the President’s rejection of the proposed Finance Minister, prompting likely new elections later this year.

Unstable governments in Italy are nothing new, but markets are worried… Read the article