In spite of trade-war driven volatility in May, market behaviour in many major regions during the second quarter was characterised by positive returns from both equities and bonds (with Japanese and other Asian equity weakness a notable exception):
Sometimes the market is seen as an almost mystical force, sending signals that give us special insights about the future if only we can decipher what it’s ‘telling us.’
Other times it’s characterised as a naïve and careless basket case, subject to the lack of judgement and greed of… Read the article
It is now three years since Britain voted to leave the EU (in case anyone needed reminding). We are all aware of never-ending twists and turns in this saga, even if we are none the wiser as to the final conclusion. But, we ask, with the benefit of hindsight, how… Read the article
This certainly seems to have been the case for bulk of… Read the article
In 2018, almost all major asset class categories delivered negative returns:
So far in 2019, almost all major assets have done the opposite:
Our sense at the end of 2018 was that the volatility being seen in markets at that time was episodic in nature. Yes, there were things to be worried about from a growth standpoint, but the rapidity and nature of price moves suggested that… Read the article
The last quarter of 2018 saw some significant equity weakness, which came in two bouts:
In October, price weakness emerged in response to rising rate expectations in the US. However, any investors hoping that an abatement of those pressures would support equity markets were to be disappointed.… Read the article
It is easy to lose sight of just how much investors have changed their minds about the global environment this year.
How did… Read the article
Yesterday, the US yield curve became inverted. The yield on three-year Treasuries was temporarily (blink and you’ll miss it) lower than that of their two-year counterparts. This is, apparently, huge.
Many are worried because an inverted yield curve has frequently been a sign of upcoming… Read the article
It is quite staggering how much sentiment on the global economy can change. In the middle of 2016 asset prices suggested that we’d never see meaningful growth again, by the end of 2017 ‘synchronised expansion’ was the order of the day.
Today the prevailing argument is that the world is… Read the article