As we have mentioned repeatedly on this blog, the change in market mood since the pivotal moment in the middle of 2016 has been staggering.
The flattening of the US yield curve has inspired much commentary and hand-wringing in certain quarters lately. The concern is overdone.
Looking back at periods of rising US policy rates over the past 30 years, history would suggest there is nothing remarkable about today’s level of long-dated bond yields relative… Read the article
Last week, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe called a snap election trying to capitalise on increased public support over the summer, as the North Korea issues intensified. If the election result was to grant him a larger majority, it will enable him more room to proceed with his economic plan.… Read the article
Equity markets generally delivered strong returns
The MSCI All Country World delivered 5.1% in Q3, with most major markets providing positive returns:
A lot of time collectively is spent monitoring and analysing data on investment fund flows. Is this time well spent?
The assumptions typically made are that fund flows data indicate which assets are ‘popular’ and in the absence of significant change, continued flows might suggest underlying momentum for an asset… Read the article
US ten year Treasuries have delivered a zero real return to investors over the last five years, while the US equity market has increased by 87%.
This should not be a surprise. It makes sense for investors to pay up for lower volatility (even if this relationship does… Read the article
The last two weeks have seen a relatively sharp increase in developed market government bond yields, seemingly driven by a perceived change in tone from central banks.
The moves are actually relatively modest, merely bringing yields back to levels seen at the start of the year.Read the article
Political developments have dominated market commentary for much of the last two years. However, such commentary is often overly focused on short term considerations: trying to forecast short term price moves around elections, or considering which areas of the market will be the winners and losers from particular polices. In… Watch the video
The Shiller price-to-earnings ratio (or ‘cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio’) has become the poster child for bubble-hunters everywhere. Ever since Robert Shiller himself became associated with the dot.com boom and bust, investors have looked to the metric as an indicator of irrational exuberance in the markets.
So why is Shiller himself… Read the article
As if political uncertainty was in short supply, Theresa May’s decision to call an early General Election, seeking stability, has achieved the opposite.
The outcome of the election, while clearly a surprise relative to expectations just a few weeks ago, seems broadly consistent with the trend in opinion polls in… Read the article