In the last week there has been a reasonable bounce in equities from their March lows and some moderation in market volatility.
But when it comes to forecasting economic data for the first half of 2020, for once we know what’s coming:
So far, all we can truly know in… Read the article
A version of this article originally appeared in the Financial Times last week.
There is a widespread assumption that the European Central Bank — like other major central banks — has reached the limits of monetary policy, and that the… Read the article
Last week I wrote about the apparent confusion caused in some quarters by strong stock returns against a backdrop of weak macro and profits data. I argued that two important reasons behind this were the removal of rate pressure, and the unwind of the episode at the end of… Read the article
The following article originally appeared in the Financial Times.
In the past, central banks set the price of money using interest rates. In the future, it seems, they will be giving it away. This week the US Federal Reserve… Read the article
Central banks are at a crossroads, and if they carry on, maybe a dead-end. The good news, though, is twofold: central bankers recognise the need to reassess their frameworks and they are coming at it from a point of strength:… Read the article
In 2018, almost all major asset class categories delivered negative returns:
So far in 2019, almost all major assets have done the opposite:
Earlier this week the IMF released its latest economic outlook. It was the debut of the newly appointed and first female IMF chief economist, Gita Gopinath.
She observed that “While global growth in 2018 remained close to post crisis highs, the global expansion is weakening”. Indeed, the… Read the article
Last week saw the manifestation of these challenges. The Turkish Lira decline on Friday was among the largest one-day currency moves of the last ten… Read the article
Eric recently wrote a fascinating piece on the ‘volatility virus’ which has contaminated the professional investment community. This blog post builds on that piece by considering the use – more specifically, the misuse – of quantitative ‘analysis’ more generally.
It is important to point out I am not… Read the article