As if the stellar returns of bitcoin this year weren’t enough, the cryptocurrency gained more attention last night as JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon called it a ‘fraud’ that will eventually blow up. In this post, which originally featured on Eric Lonergan’s Philosophy of… Read the article
With Korean missile launches, Trump’s tweets, Hurricane Harvey, NAFTA negotiations and Brexit battles, journalists have plenty to keep themselves busy.
Of course, some of today’s headline-grabbing events might bring profound and unexpected change with lasting impact on global financial markets. But then again, they may not: devastating local events such… Read the article
Political developments have dominated market commentary for much of the last two years. However, such commentary is often overly focused on short term considerations: trying to forecast short term price moves around elections, or considering which areas of the market will be the winners and losers from particular polices. In… Watch the video
The defining characteristic of US economic data since the financial crisis is not stagnation, but stability. We all look back on the Great Moderation with incredulity at the hubris of economists. But has reality morphed into the Greatest Moderation?
There was always a kernel of truth in the… Read the article
The recent shifts in political ideology around the world have been fought against a background of increased tensions over wage levels and a fear of job insecurity in the wake of both globalisation, and more recently, technological advances. These issues underpin much of the political discussion… Read the article
The election of Emmanuel Macron as President of France marks an important shift in the narrative around European politics: not all popular discontent in Europe can be channelled as anti-EU or purely nationalistic.
For investors, the importance of Macron’s victory may be more about what has been rejected… Read the article
Despite the partial realignment of European long-dated government bond yields following the Euro crisis in 2012, there has been renewed divergence in yields in the last few years.
On a simplistic level, this runs contrary to improving fundamentals. While sharply accelerating Portuguese and Spanish debt levels partly explained… Read the article
Are asset markets “pausing for breath”? Since the relatively dramatic moves in many markets in the second half of last year, a lot of commentary suggests that things feel less eventful so far in 2017.
There are a number of biases evident in this view. Such commentary is hugely myopic… Read the article
Wednesday’s triggering of Article 50 was a non-event in financial markets; an event more symbolic than anything else. Meanwhile in the US, two Fed officials were discussing their views on what could happen to US interest rates.
We have long written about the dangers of economic forecasting as an input into the investment process. The future is often highly surprising and nobody has a perfect model of how the economy works, which means forecasts will usually turn out to be wrong – just ask any… Read the article