Volatility returned in February, but not the kind of volatility we have been used to for much of the period since the financial crisis.
Category: Behavioural Finance
This latest ‘flash crash’ is a notable event. There have been only three phases in last 25 years when the S&P500 has moved this rapidly in this short a period of time, a fact drawn to my attention by my perceptive colleague, Marc Beckenstrater (see figure 1). Similar moves in… Read the article
Stuart wrote last year on some of the challenges associated with relying solely upon the Shiller P/E as a measure of equity valuation. This debate has been widely covered and is somewhat moot at any rate, given that the US market is looking expensive relative to history… Read the article
Is it true that “the easy money has been made?”
This is something that it has been common to hear over the last couple of years and, it seems, is even more common today.
But, as Morgan Housel pointed out in 2015:
One of the most common clichés of the last couple of years is the idea that we have been in ‘the most hated bull market in history.” Today attitudes are shifting.
The annual ‘Black Friday’ phenomenon is well known for producing some unusual human behaviour. Consumers rush to take advantage of lower prices, displaying the classic biases associated with group dynamics: myopia, and a fear of missing out. We often see people in a crowd doing things that… Read the article
As we have mentioned repeatedly on this blog, the change in market mood since the pivotal moment in the middle of 2016 has been staggering.
We are told that markets are ignoring news flow today in the hunt for short term gains. In part this seems to be an issue of salience. The news which ‘feels’ more important is that which grabs the headlines: Korean missile tests, the unwinding (or not) of QE,… Read the article
New York, New York…
Imagine the excitement. In a moment of spontaneity, you’ve decided to treat yourself and your other half to a last minute trip to New York. You’ve selected the hotel, managed to get reservations at some highly recommended restaurants and even tickets for a Broadway show, which… Read the article
Moreover, when the issue is an emotive one, tied up with how we view ourselves, our group identities, and… Read the article