Our sense at the end of 2018 was that the volatility being seen in markets at that time was episodic in nature. Yes, there were things to be worried about from a growth standpoint, but the rapidity and nature of price moves suggested that… Read the article
Category: Behavioural Finance
Earlier this week the IMF released its latest economic outlook. It was the debut of the newly appointed and first female IMF chief economist, Gita Gopinath.
She observed that “While global growth in 2018 remained close to post crisis highs, the global expansion is weakening”. Indeed, the… Read the article
The last quarter of 2018 saw some significant equity weakness, which came in two bouts:
In October, price weakness emerged in response to rising rate expectations in the US. However, any investors hoping that an abatement of those pressures would support equity markets were to be disappointed.… Read the article
It is easy to lose sight of just how much investors have changed their minds about the global environment this year.
How did we… Read the article
Yesterday, the US yield curve became inverted. The yield on three-year Treasuries was temporarily (blink and you’ll miss it) lower than that of their two-year counterparts. This is, apparently, huge.
Many are worried because an inverted yield curve has frequently been a sign of upcoming… Read the article
It is quite staggering how much sentiment on the global economy can change. In the middle of 2016 asset prices suggested that we’d never see meaningful growth again, by the end of 2017 ‘synchronised expansion’ was the order of the day.
Today the prevailing argument is that the world is… Read the article
“The world…has witnessed an extensive history of financial bubbles, expanding credit, and subsequent crises…We put inaccurate beliefs at the centre of the analysis of financial fragility”.
One of the major market trends so far this year has been the outperformance of the US equity market relative to most other global regions. But with some identifying US moves as ‘the longest bull market in history’ and a prevailing sense that the US economy is… Read the article
A major study released last month found that non-retired UK investors are saving a higher proportion of their income for retirement than many parts of Europe. Before we start celebrating, there are two important points to consider.
First, estimates are that the UK still… Read the article
Remember last year when most financial commentary was saying that market volatility was too low? That was a pretty unusual state of affairs.
Most of the time market commentary presents us with a very different picture of markets. Asset prices “plunge,” “plummet,” “sink” and of course “crash.” Or they… Read the article