Today, the US imposed tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese imports, marking what some see as the official start of Donald Trump’s ‘trade war.’ The trade war story has come to dominate market commentary as the second quarter has progressed, deflecting attention from the… Read the article
Category: Behavioural Finance
Eric recently wrote a fascinating piece on the ‘volatility virus’ which has contaminated the professional investment community. This blog post builds on that piece by considering the use – more specifically, the misuse – of quantitative ‘analysis’ more generally.
It is important to point out I am not… Read the article
Remember the ‘fragile five’? These were five emerging market currencies that were deemed to be most at risk of US policy tightening during the ‘taper tantrum’ of 2013. The main concerns for these economies centred on their vulnerability to foreign capital outflows.
Recently we’ve seen a re-emergence… Read the article
Volatility returned in February, but not the kind of volatility we have been used to for much of the period since the financial crisis.
This latest ‘flash crash’ is a notable event. There have been only three phases in last 25 years when the S&P500 has moved this rapidly in this short a period of time, a fact drawn to my attention by my perceptive colleague, Marc Beckenstrater (see figure 1). Similar moves in… Read the article
Stuart wrote last year on some of the challenges associated with relying solely upon the Shiller P/E as a measure of equity valuation. This debate has been widely covered and is somewhat moot at any rate, given that the US market is looking expensive relative to history… Read the article
Is it true that “the easy money has been made?”
This is something that it has been common to hear over the last couple of years and, it seems, is even more common today.
But, as Morgan Housel pointed out in 2015:
One of the most common clichés of the last couple of years is the idea that we have been in ‘the most hated bull market in history.” Today attitudes are shifting.
The annual ‘Black Friday’ phenomenon is well known for producing some unusual human behaviour. Consumers rush to take advantage of lower prices, displaying the classic biases associated with group dynamics: myopia, and a fear of missing out. We often see people in a crowd doing things that… Read the article
As we have mentioned repeatedly on this blog, the change in market mood since the pivotal moment in the middle of 2016 has been staggering.