Tristan joined M&G in 2016 as a fund manager and is a member of the Multi Asset team, with over 15 years’ experience in asset management. Prior to joining M&G, he was Head of Asset Allocation with responsibility for global multi-asset funds at Ashburton Investments. Tristan holds a Master in Public Administration in International Development from Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and a BA (Hons) in Economics from Durham University. He is a Chartered Fellow of the CISI.
The election and the vaccine: different types of event risk
Behavioural Finance Markets
November has been a rollercoaster for investors and much has already been written about the ‘unprecedented’ and ‘exceptional’ rotation that occurred following Pfizer’s announcement about the efficacy of its COVID-19 vaccine.
The primary focus of commentary has been the swing… Read the article
The Future for Asset Allocation
Markets
The world is a profoundly surprising place. That was the case in 2019 – few people predicted a vintage year for both bonds and equities, with the latter outperforming despite no earnings growth. Already in 2020, we have been taken by surprise by events involving the US and Iran. What… Read the article
Central banks: crossroads or dead-end?
Economics
Central banks are at a crossroads, and if they carry on, maybe a dead-end. The good news, though, is twofold: central bankers recognise the need to reassess their frameworks and they are coming at it from a point of strength:… Read the article
Brexit: Three years on
Markets
It is now three years since Britain voted to leave the EU (in case anyone needed reminding). We are all aware of never-ending twists and turns in this saga, even if we are none the wiser as to the final conclusion. But, we ask, with the benefit of hindsight, how… Read the article
Episode blog Quicktake: Theresa May’s Resignation
As Theresa May remarked in her resignation speech, her successor will face the same challenge of finding consensus over Brexit within Parliament. So far Westminster has been able only to express what it doesn’t want, and has failed to coalesce around a way forward. The path ahead remains as uncertain… Read the article
Beware the allure of a good-looking chart
I received the following chart from a broker earlier this week. It plots the trailing 12-month price return on the US stock market versus a survey of activity in the US manufacturing sector, where a score above 50 indicates expansion and vice versa.
The broker’s conclusion was straight-forward, “if you… Read the article
From rationality to realism. Book review: “A Crisis of Beliefs: Investor Psychology & Financial Fragility”
Behavioural Finance
“The world…has witnessed an extensive history of financial bubbles, expanding credit, and subsequent crises…We put inaccurate beliefs at the centre of the analysis of financial fragility”.
In a new book, “A Crisis of Beliefs”, economists Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer tackle the role of beliefs in financial… Read the article
Science & pseudoscience of quantitative techniques
Behavioural Finance Economics
Eric recently wrote a fascinating piece on the ‘volatility virus’ which has contaminated the professional investment community. This blog post builds on that piece by considering the use – more specifically, the misuse – of quantitative ‘analysis’ more generally.
It is important to point out I am not… Read the article
US Yield Curve: Inverted Logic?
Economics
Fed officials have been particularly vocal about the slope of the yield curve this week (most notably here and here), in particular voicing concerns over a possible curve inversion (when yields on short dated bonds rise above those on long dated bonds).
… Read the article
US yield curve flattening: nothing to see here
Economics Markets
The flattening of the US yield curve has inspired much commentary and hand-wringing in certain quarters lately. The concern is overdone.
Looking back at periods of rising US policy rates over the past 30 years, history would suggest there is nothing remarkable about today’s level of long-dated bond yields relative… Read the article