Tristan joined M&G in 2016 as a fund manager and is a member of the Multi Asset team, with over 15 years’ experience in asset management. Prior to joining M&G, he was Head of Asset Allocation with responsibility for global multi-asset funds at Ashburton Investments. Tristan holds a Master in Public Administration in International Development from Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and a BA (Hons) in Economics from Durham University. He is a Chartered Fellow of the CISI.
Backward looking forecasts
Behavioural Finance Economics
We have long written about the dangers of economic forecasting as an input into the investment process. The future is often highly surprising and nobody has a perfect model of how the economy works, which means forecasts will usually turn out to be wrong – just ask any… Read the article
US and global inflation: A cyclical turn or something more lasting?
Economics Markets
Though they might not admit it now, a number of commentators argued in the immediate post-crisis years that quantitative easing (QE) would cause inflation to rise to worrying levels in countries such as the US and UK.
At the time, I argued this view was likely to be wrong because… Read the article
Is the US economy ‘overdue’ a recession?
Economics
The US economy is ‘late cycle’. You hear this a lot these days.
The terminology is interesting. Are there signals flashing that the US is on the cusp of a downturn? Is it simply a view that we are ‘overdue’ a recession?
Or might this be an example of the… Read the article
Some perspectives on risk & correlation
Investment Industry Markets
(I) Bond/equity correlation:
At our recent quarterly investment offsite, an interesting debate arose on the correlation between bonds and equities. One participant suggested bonds and equities in the US had been positively correlated in recent years, while another was firmly of the view that they had been… Read the article
How tight is the US labour market?
Economics
The July employment report showing strong jobs growth and an unemployment rate below 5% would, on the face of it, suggest a US labour market in robust health. But many commentators remain unconvinced, pointing to the continued low labour force participation rate (LFPR) – the combined percentage of… Read the article
Coping with event risk: how to tackle the next Brexit
Behavioural Finance Investment Industry
After the UK referendum on EU membership, attention for many now turns to the next “event”: perhaps the next meeting of a major central bank, Italy’s referendum on constitutional reform, or the US presidential election. You can be certain each of these events will generate considerable… Read the article