Stuart is a research analyst for the M&G Multi Asset team and is editor of the Episode blog. He joined M&G in 2005 and has worked in the Episode team since 2007. Stuart has a degree in English and History from York University and is a CFA charterholder.
One of the most common clichés of the last couple of years is the idea that we have been in ‘the most hated bull market in history.” Today attitudes are shifting.
There are a couple of reasons why we don’t believe that forecasting short term events is a sustainable investment approach.
First, it is very difficult: how can one have a sustainable forecasting ‘edge’ over and above what is currently priced into the market on something like an election result?… Read the article
One should probably be wary of writing yet another article on Bitcoin. If the number of press articles and blog posts was an indicator of bubbles, then there would be little debate. Aside from the fact that it is now the middle of winter, Bitcoin would certainly satisfy all the… Read the article
We are told that markets are ignoring news flow today in the hunt for short term gains. In part this seems to be an issue of salience. The news which ‘feels’ more important is that which grabs the headlines: Korean missile tests, the unwinding (or not) of QE,… Read the article
Equity markets generally delivered strong returns
The MSCI All Country World delivered 5.1% in Q3, with most major markets providing positive returns:
Clients are rightly sceptical when we talk about applying behavioural finance to analysing market behaviour. Behavioural finance seems very “woolly” at the best of times and most of the well-known literature focuses on the decisions of individuals, not how this applies to the markets as a whole.… Read the article
Last month apparently represented the twentieth anniversary of the start of the Asian crisis, and five years since Draghi’s ‘whatever it takes’ speech. This week apparently marks the ten-year anniversary of the financial crisis.
These events make great ‘hooks’ for content in the press, blogs,… Read the article
US ten year Treasuries have delivered a zero real return to investors over the last five years, while the US equity market has increased by 87%.
This should not be a surprise. It makes sense for investors to pay up for lower volatility (even if this relationship does… Read the article
The last two weeks have seen a relatively sharp increase in developed market government bond yields, seemingly driven by a perceived change in tone from central banks.
The moves are actually relatively modest, merely bringing yields back to levels seen at the start of the year.Read the article