Stuart is a research analyst for the M&G Multi Asset team and is editor of the Episode blog. He joined M&G in 2005 and has worked in the Episode team since 2007. Stuart has a degree in English and History from York University and is a CFA charterholder.
Markets reacted sharply to the weekend’s news that ongoing attempts to form a coalition government in Italy had collapsed after the President’s rejection of the proposed Finance Minister, prompting likely new elections later this year.
Remember the ‘fragile five’? These were five emerging market currencies that were deemed to be most at risk of US policy tightening during the ‘taper tantrum’ of 2013. The main concerns for these economies centred on their vulnerability to foreign capital outflows.
Recently we’ve seen a re-emergence… Read the article
Volatility returned in February, but not the kind of volatility we have been used to for much of the period since the financial crisis.
In the midst of February’s volatility most of the reasons given to explain equity market declines centred on the role of rising US bond yields and, perhaps, the exaggerating role played by exchange-traded volatility products.
Since then, equities have seen another (modest) bout of weakness (as… Read the article
It is always worrying to hear investors ask how managers performed over very short time horizons. It seems very unlikely that a couple of weeks’ performance can tell you much about a fund manager’s skill as opposed to luck.
But short time frames might be able to tell you… Read the article
Real interest rates are an anchor for the valuation of all assets. The classical theory of interest holds that as a ‘discount rate,’ they embed the market’s relative preference for cash today over cash in the future.
The US cash rate is arguably the best sense we… Read the article
Is it true that “the easy money has been made?”
This is something that it has been common to hear over the last couple of years and, it seems, is even more common today.
But, as Morgan Housel pointed out in 2015:
One of the most common clichés of the last couple of years is the idea that we have been in ‘the most hated bull market in history.” Today attitudes are shifting.
There are a couple of reasons why we don’t believe that forecasting short term events is a sustainable investment approach.
First, it is very difficult: how can one have a sustainable forecasting ‘edge’ over and above what is currently priced into the market on something like an election result?… Read the article