Stuart is a research analyst for the M&G Multi Asset team and is editor of the Episode blog. He joined M&G in 2005 and has worked in the Episode team since 2007. Stuart has a degree in English and History from York University and is a CFA charterholder.
While markets were closed in Japan, Korea, Thailand and the UK yesterday, stock markets in other regions ‘plunged’ (there’s that word again) on a re-emergence of trade war fears.
Domestic Chinese markets were the hardest hit, with some impact on neighbouring countries.
The source of the moves,… Read the article
In 2018, almost all major asset class categories delivered negative returns:
So far in 2019, almost all major assets have done the opposite:
Our sense at the end of 2018 was that the volatility being seen in markets at that time was episodic in nature. Yes, there were things to be worried about from a growth standpoint, but the rapidity and nature of price moves suggested that… Read the article
The last quarter of 2018 saw some significant equity weakness, which came in two bouts:
In October, price weakness emerged in response to rising rate expectations in the US. However, any investors hoping that an abatement of those pressures would support equity markets were to be disappointed.… Read the article
It is easy to lose sight of just how much investors have changed their minds about the global environment this year.
How did… Read the article
Yesterday, the US yield curve became inverted. The yield on three-year Treasuries was temporarily (blink and you’ll miss it) lower than that of their two-year counterparts. This is, apparently, huge.
Many are worried because an inverted yield curve has frequently been a sign of upcoming… Read the article
It is quite staggering how much sentiment on the global economy can change. In the middle of 2016 asset prices suggested that we’d never see meaningful growth again, by the end of 2017 ‘synchronised expansion’ was the order of the day.
Today the prevailing argument is that the world is… Read the article
The summer felt quite volatile, with lots of headlines about trade agreements, elections and the like, as well as some big price moves in Turkey, Argentina, and Italy.
One of the major market trends so far this year has been the outperformance of the US equity market relative to most other global regions. But with some identifying US moves as ‘the longest bull market in history’ and a prevailing sense that the US economy is… Read the article
Last week saw the manifestation of these challenges. The Turkish Lira decline on Friday was among the largest one-day currency moves of the last ten… Read the article