Eric Lonergan joined M&G in 2006 as a member of Dave Fishwick's multi asset team. Eric is currently manager of the M&G Episode Defensive Fund, launched in September 2012, as well as co-manager of the M&G Episode Macro Fund, launched in 2010. Prior to joining M&G, Eric was managing director and head of macro research at JP Morgan Cazenove. He has a BA in politics, philosophy and economics from Pembroke College, Oxford, and an MSc in economics from the London School of Economics.
Political developments have dominated market commentary for much of the last two years. However, such commentary is often overly focused on short term considerations: trying to forecast short term price moves around elections, or considering which areas of the market will be the winners and losers from particular polices. In… Watch the video
The defining characteristic of US economic data since the financial crisis is not stagnation, but stability. We all look back on the Great Moderation with incredulity at the hubris of economists. But has reality morphed into the Greatest Moderation?
There was always a kernel of truth in the… Read the article
The recent shifts in political ideology around the world have been fought against a background of increased tensions over wage levels and a fear of job insecurity in the wake of both globalisation, and more recently, technological advances. These issues underpin much of the political discussion… Read the article
Eras of political and economic consensus define the risk characteristics of assets; what is risky and what is safe depends on the regime we are living in. As an example, the Cold War era produced very different return profiles and correlations to the ‘neo-liberal’ phase that has characterised… Watch the video
Earlier this year, Matthew Klein at FT’s Alphaville, made a typically punchy and well-argued case for abandoning a cornerstone of the current macro policy framework – the NAIRU.
This inelegant acronym (“Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment”) refers to the rate of unemployment which is consistent with stable inflation.… Read the article
Why is the Bank of Japan (BoJ) trying to raise the rate of inflation? Taking account of its demographic profile, Japan’s economic performance has been impressive by developed world standards, as Anne Richards at Bond Vigilantes recently points out, and the economy appears to be at close to… Read the article
Markets remain obsessed with relatively minor changes in US official interest rates expectations. The FOMC revealed that at least three interest rate increases next year look reasonable, slightly higher than prior forecasts of two. No one should be surprised. Given the starting point levels of interest rates, the relative insensitivity… Read the article
It seems apposite that Matteo Renzi’s term as Italian Prime minister should end in this way. For investors, this referendum was a surreal distraction. The population were voting on the nuance of domestic decision making, but Eurozone membership means that there is limited scope for those decisions to impact the… Read the article
It’s Brexit all over again. The surge in anti-establishment sentiment is definitively global. Brexit can no longer be dismissed as a freak event. It is a trend. Donald Trump looks almost certain to win, by defying his party, the media, and conventional politics. Populism is coming to power. The critical… Read the article
Recent shifts in policy direction by global central banks may prove to be profound. Since the financial crisis, most major Central Banks have responded to weak growth with ever lower rates or further bond buying. Today, a consensus may be emerging that these are the policies of the past. Not… Read the article