So after one of the most eagerly anticipated FOMC meetings ever, at last we know…that we still don’t know when the US Federal Reserve (the ‘Fed’) will raise rates.
A Bloomberg headline yesterday provided the breaking news that the “ECB Bolsters Economic Recovery”. The article covers the latest European Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) numbers from Markit Economics, which indicate expansion in much of the Eurozone.
We believe the longer-term trend in European PMIs is a reasonable indicator… Read the article
The victory of left-wing anti-austerity party, Syriza, in Sunday’s Greek election has reignited concerns about the potential for Greece to default on its debts, and the country’s future in the euro. While Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras has expressed the intention to renegotiate the terms of Greece’s bailout, he has been… Read the article
In recent weeks, a number of factors – Greek politics, French, German and Chinese PMIs, the continued decline in the oil price – have come together to rattle investor confidence and trigger some dramatic changes of direction across global financial markets, in extremely short-term phases.
Turbulence in Russian currency markets… Read the article
Thursday’s headlines fretted over initial sharp declines across equity markets (see chart) on the back of Mario Draghi’s latest policy announcement, which apparently disappointed investors hoping for the imminent launch of full-blown quantitative easing by the ECB.
As a side note, most of the concern manifested in European markets themselves… Read the article
By one definition – two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction – Japan’s economy unexpectedly entered recession in the third quarter of this year. After some initial turbulence, markets have generally responded with broad indifference. Nonetheless, the news has stimulated a fair bit of hand-wringing among some commentators on whether this… Read the article
Mark Carney knows well enough how keenly market participants watch policy developments these days. He knows how powerfully the tone and language of his every statement can influence short-term sentiment. He made reference to this himself at his August Inflation Report press conference, when talking about the market’s obsession with… Read the article
Last week, as investors focused on the Bank of Japan’s surprise ratcheting up of quantitative easing, the US Federal Reserve’s own long-term asset purchase programme came to an end with barely a flicker of attention in terms of market movements.
The relatively quiet completion of ‘tapering’ was a far cry… Read the article
Every week we sit down as a team to look at a summary of the economic data releases from across the world over the past seven days. We try to decipher what, if anything at all, those little green and red numbers tell us about the nature of the global… Read the article
To use Nate Silver’s terminology (in his insightful book highlighted by our colleagues over at Bond Vigilantes recently), this week has seen plenty of ‘noise’ (subjective commentary) for very little ‘signal’ (objective data).
In the signal-lull between last week’s flurry of economic data releases (for example, on US… Read the article