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Month: January 2018

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There are two sides to every ratio: the Shiller P/E ratio, Chinese leverage problem and ‘denominator neglect’

31 Jan 2018
Alex Houlding
Behavioural Finance Value Investing

Stuart wrote last year on some of the challenges associated with relying solely upon the Shiller P/E as a measure of equity valuation. This debate has been widely covered and is somewhat moot at any rate, given that the US market is looking expensive relative to history… Read the article

The weird and frightening world of rising interest rates: The market is going to have to make a call

26 Jan 2018
Stuart Canning

Real interest rates are an anchor for the valuation of all assets. The classical theory of interest holds that as a ‘discount rate,’ they embed the market’s relative preference for cash today over cash in the future.

The US cash rate is arguably the best sense we… Read the article

Thank goodness for the end of ‘easy money’

24 Jan 2018
Stuart Canning
Behavioural Finance

Is it true that “the easy money has been made?”

This is something that it has been common to hear over the last couple of years and, it seems, is even more common today.

But, as Morgan Housel pointed out in 2015:

A… Read the article

A summary of Q4 2017: Have we climbed the ‘wall of worry’? Or: How I learned to stop worrying and love the boom

11 Jan 2018
Stuart Canning
Behavioural Finance Markets

One of the most common clichés of the last couple of years is the idea that we have been in ‘the most hated bull market in history.” Today attitudes are shifting.

Dave wrote in summer 2016 about a pivotal moment in investor psychology and asset… Read the article

The range of irrelevance for interest rates

5 Jan 2018
Eric Lonergan
Economics

Despite the fact that interest rates determine all asset valuations, there is nothing close to a general theory of interest rate determination. In 2016, I wrote about the flaws of a belief in an equilibrium rate of interest (typically known as R* in the academic literature) and the overemphasis… Read the article

2018 Market Calendar: Will these be the major financial events in 2018?

3 Jan 2018
Stuart Canning

There are a couple of reasons why we don’t believe that forecasting short term events is a sustainable investment approach.

First, it is very difficult: how can one have a sustainable forecasting ‘edge’ over and above what is currently priced into the market on something like an election result?… Read the article

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Investment professionals only: Please note the content on this website is for Investment Professionals only and should be shared responsibly. No other persons should rely on the information contained within this website. This blog provides commentary and views prepared by M&G's Multi Asset team. Information shown on the blog should not be taken as advice or a recommendation to make an investment decision.
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Please note the content on this website is for Investment Professionals only and should be shared responsibly. No other persons should rely on the information contained within this website.

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Welcome to the M&G Multi Asset Team’s Allocation blog, previously known as the Episode blog. We have changed the name of our blog to resonate better with our readers in Europe, however, the content and purpose of the blog has not changed. The Allocation blog continues to aim to provide unique market perspectives from our dedicated team of experienced asset allocators.

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