Wednesday’s triggering of Article 50 was a non-event in financial markets; an event more symbolic than anything else. Meanwhile in the US, two Fed officials were discussing their views on what could happen to US interest rates.
Month: March 2017
The negotiations around the withdrawal of the UK from the European Union have the potential to be the most significant structural change to the UK’s economy in a generation. Then again, the economic impact might be so small, we may not even notice.
The degree of clarity around these issues… Read the article
We have long written about the dangers of economic forecasting as an input into the investment process. The future is often highly surprising and nobody has a perfect model of how the economy works, which means forecasts will usually turn out to be wrong – just ask any… Read the article
From the Financial Times this month:
“The tranquillity of Wall Street’s ‘Fear Gauge’ continues to baffle investors, given the market uncertainty”
Financial commentators and journalists – who are just as prone to herding as investors themselves – have brought attention to the ‘volatility paradox,’ the apparent disconnect… Read the article
Amidst the intense focus on central bank policy decisions and the latest Trump activity you’d be forgiven for barely having registered that the oil price fell more than 9% last week. Wind back the clock just over a year and it would have been front page news.
This present apathy… Read the article
Though they might not admit it now, a number of commentators argued in the immediate post-crisis years that quantitative easing (QE) would cause inflation to rise to worrying levels in countries such as the US and UK.
At the time, I argued this view was likely to be wrong because… Read the article
Eras of political and economic consensus define the risk characteristics of assets; what is risky and what is safe depends on the regime we are living in. As an example, the Cold War era produced very different return profiles and correlations to the ‘neo-liberal’ phase that has characterised… Watch the video