On Tuesday I touched on how charts can be used to tell overly simplistic stories, and how whether we choose to accept them at face value or dig into the detail often depends on how much they confirm what we already believe. It seems there are a couple… Read the article
Month: September 2016
As believers in behavioural finance, we always try to consider how forces that we are not aware of can influence the decisions we make. Often the ways in which information is presented to us can play a vital role in shaping these biases.
Many have written about how the rise… Read the article
The S&P500 index has risen to near record levels, but it seems that this has happened without any apparent rise in optimism about future corporate prospects. If anything, judging by my inbox, the chorus of impending doom gets louder by the day. The concurrent rise in the S&P500 with this… Read the article
(I) Bond/equity correlation:
At our recent quarterly investment offsite, an interesting debate arose on the correlation between bonds and equities. One participant suggested bonds and equities in the US had been positively correlated in recent years, while another was firmly of the view that they had been… Read the article
Like many economists, I have been trapped into thinking that there is an equilibrium real rate of interest – a level of the policy rate consistent with stable inflation, a closed output gap, or full employment. The trick for policy makers is to find the magic… Read the article
In the world of finance, the insatiable demand for content means that even when not much is happening, it becomes a topic of conversation.