The July employment report showing strong jobs growth and an unemployment rate below 5% would, on the face of it, suggest a US labour market in robust health. But many commentators remain unconvinced, pointing to the continued low labour force participation rate (LFPR) – the combined percentage of… Read more
Though it may seem hard to believe, attention on policy makers has intensified. The market has delivered a vote of no confidence in the notion of negative interest rates and appears increasingly dissatisfied with the ability of monetary policy and QE to impact the… Read more
These are extraordinary times in financial markets. On a daily basis we are being bombarded with news headlines of political turmoil, market gyrations, forecasts of the un-knowable, and incomprehensible new technologies.
In amongst all of this chaos – one story that hasn’t attracted enough attention… Read more
Humans like to think they know more about things than they really do. This is perhaps more true in finance than elsewhere, because the abundance of data lends itself to analysis, pseudo-science, and experts.
One of the data points that draws most attention is the US non-farm payrolls, which is… Read more
After the UK referendum on EU membership, attention for many now turns to the next “event”: perhaps the next meeting of a major central bank, Italy’s referendum on constitutional reform, or the US presidential election. You can be certain each of these events will generate considerable… Read more
The dividend yield on the US stock market is now around 1% higher than the yield on 10-year US Treasuries, having started the year at roughly the same level.*
For most investors alive today, this will be an unusual state of affairs. Since the… Read more
Last night’s Federal Reserve minutes noted that:
‘Participants generally thought that it would be prudent to wait for the outcome of the upcoming referendum in the United Kingdom on membership in the European Union in order to assess the consequences of the vote for… Read more
A week on, where are we?
Friday 24th June feels like a long time ago – so much has happened since then. Sterling has dominated the headlines here in the UK. It has risen a little from the initial post-Brexit low of 1.312 against the dollar, but is still down… Read more
Markets have recently experienced some heightened volatility, which at times has been explained by commentators as being due to the changing expectations around the outcome of the UK referendum. Last week, equity markets globally experienced losses, while ‘safe haven’ assets, such as G7 government bond markets, rallied. The biggest currency… Read more
For a long time after 2008, asset prices suggested that most investors believed low interest rates to be temporary. The most common view, whether conscious or subconscious, seemed to be that once we were ‘out of the woods’ things would return to normal.
We have written before about how this… Read more