Behavioural Finance Investment Industry
Much has been made recently of the struggles faced by ‘macro’ managers in recent years, particularly among hedge funds. The last five years have seen relatively low returns to these strategies both in an absolute sense, but most notably relative to global equity markets.
The perceptions of poor performance have… Read the article
Investment Industry Markets
A lot of time collectively is spent monitoring and analysing data on investment fund flows. Is this time well spent?
The assumptions typically made are that fund flows data indicate which assets are ‘popular’ and in the absence of significant change, continued flows might suggest underlying momentum for an asset… Read the article
Behavioural Finance Markets
US ten year Treasuries have delivered a zero real return to investors over the last five years, while the US equity market has increased by 87%.
This should not be a surprise. It makes sense for investors to pay up for lower volatility (even if this relationship does… Read the article
The last two weeks have seen a relatively sharp increase in developed market government bond yields, seemingly driven by a perceived change in tone from central banks.
The moves are actually relatively modest, merely bringing yields back to levels seen at the start of the year.
… Read the article
The apparent lack of volatility in markets may have left some investors twiddling their thumbs- the passive acquisition of risk premia can sometimes be a dull world after all. To help you through until the next market episode, here are seven reading suggestions from M&G’s episode… Read the article
Political developments have dominated market commentary for much of the last two years. However, such commentary is often overly focused on short term considerations: trying to forecast short term price moves around elections, or considering which areas of the market will be the winners and losers from particular polices. In… Watch the video
The defining characteristic of US economic data since the financial crisis is not stagnation, but stability. We all look back on the Great Moderation with incredulity at the hubris of economists. But has reality morphed into the Greatest Moderation?
There was always a kernel of truth in the… Read the article
Behavioural Finance Value Investing
As a completely agnostic investor in a risk-free government bond, a sensible return expectation might be the yield on that bond.
The yield is indeed what you receive if you hold a bond to maturity. Any shorter term gains in excess of that starting yield are… Read the article
Markets Value Investing
The Shiller price-to-earnings ratio (or ‘cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio’) has become the poster child for bubble-hunters everywhere. Ever since Robert Shiller himself became associated with the dot.com boom and bust, investors have looked to the metric as an indicator of irrational exuberance in the markets.
So why is Shiller himself… Read the article