The summer felt quite volatile, with lots of headlines about trade agreements, elections and the like, as well as some big price moves in Turkey, Argentina, and Italy.
“The world…has witnessed an extensive history of financial bubbles, expanding credit, and subsequent crises…We put inaccurate beliefs at the centre of the analysis of financial fragility”.
One of the major market trends so far this year has been the outperformance of the US equity market relative to most other global regions. But with some identifying US moves as ‘the longest bull market in history’ and a prevailing sense that the US economy is… Read the article
A major study released last month found that non-retired UK investors are saving a higher proportion of their income for retirement than many parts of Europe. Before we start celebrating, there are two important points to consider.
First, estimates are that the UK still… Read the article
Last week saw the manifestation of these challenges. The Turkish Lira decline on Friday was among the largest one-day currency moves of the last ten… Read the article
The Bank of England (BoE) is widely expected to raise rates in the UK at today’s monetary policy committee, potentially marking the first time the base rate has been above 0.5% since 2009. Could this be the start of a transition to a rising rate environment similar to that seen… Read the article
Remember last year when most financial commentary was saying that market volatility was too low? That was a pretty unusual state of affairs.
Most of the time market commentary presents us with a very different picture of markets. Asset prices “plunge,” “plummet,” “sink” and of course “crash.” Or they… Read the article
No political consensus lasts forever – at least not without reform. The pre-eminence of the liberal economic order prior to the global financial crisis might have tempted us to think that this time would be different.
Instead of political convergence, however, we have witnessed growing fragmentation across… Read the article
Today, the US imposed tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese imports, marking what some see as the official start of Donald Trump’s ‘trade war.’ The trade war story has come to dominate market commentary as the second quarter has progressed, deflecting attention from the… Read the article
Eric recently wrote a fascinating piece on the ‘volatility virus’ which has contaminated the professional investment community. This blog post builds on that piece by considering the use – more specifically, the misuse – of quantitative ‘analysis’ more generally.
It is important to point out I am not… Read the article