Behavioural Finance Markets
Today, the US imposed tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese imports, marking what some see as the official start of Donald Trump’s ‘trade war.’ The trade war story has come to dominate market commentary as the second quarter has progressed, deflecting attention from the… Read the article
Behavioural Finance Economics
Eric recently wrote a fascinating piece on the ‘volatility virus’ which has contaminated the professional investment community. This blog post builds on that piece by considering the use – more specifically, the misuse – of quantitative ‘analysis’ more generally.
It is important to point out I am not… Read the article
This time it’s Italy.
I used to believe that the Eurozone was undemocratic. Now I’m not so sure. The simple view is that national electorates have been subordinated. When Greece votes to reject austerity, its government is forced back to the table, and delivers more of the same. When… Read the article
A story in the UK press this week suggested that the UK distributer of Panini football stickers (Connect Group Plc) has delivered only half the profits from the stickers that it had expected after a ‘major drop off in demand.’ The share price duly responded:
… Read the article
Markets reacted sharply to the weekend’s news that ongoing attempts to form a coalition government in Italy had collapsed after the President’s rejection of the proposed Finance Minister, prompting likely new elections later this year.
Unstable governments in Italy are nothing new, but markets are worried… Read the article
Behavioural Finance Economics Markets
Remember the ‘fragile five’? These were five emerging market currencies that were deemed to be most at risk of US policy tightening during the ‘taper tantrum’ of 2013. The main concerns for these economies centred on their vulnerability to foreign capital outflows.
Recently we’ve seen a re-emergence… Read the article
Fed officials have been particularly vocal about the slope of the yield curve this week (most notably here and here), in particular voicing concerns over a possible curve inversion (when yields on short dated bonds rise above those on long dated bonds).
The obsession… Read the article
Behavioural Finance Markets
Volatility returned in February, but not the kind of volatility we have been used to for much of the period since the financial crisis.
Instead of being about growth fears, the catalyst for the equity market drawdowns in early February was pressure on valuations caused by rising rates. In… Read the article
In the midst of February’s volatility most of the reasons given to explain equity market declines centred on the role of rising US bond yields and, perhaps, the exaggerating role played by exchange-traded volatility products.
Since then, equities have seen another (modest) bout of weakness (as… Read the article