Please note the content on this website is for Investment Professionals only and should be shared responsibly. No other persons should rely on the information contained within this website.
The Shiller price-to-earnings ratio (or ‘cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio’) has become the poster child for bubble-hunters everywhere. Ever since Robert Shiller himself became associated with the dot.com boom and bust, investors have looked to the metric as an indicator of irrational exuberance in the markets.
So why is Shiller himself… Read the article
The recent shifts in political ideology around the world have been fought against a background of increased tensions over wage levels and a fear of job insecurity in the wake of both globalisation, and more recently, technological advances. These issues underpin much of the political discussion… Read the article
As if political uncertainty was in short supply, Theresa May’s decision to call an early General Election, seeking stability, has achieved the opposite.
The outcome of the election, while clearly a surprise relative to expectations just a few weeks ago, seems broadly consistent with the trend in opinion polls in… Read the article
While markets may have seemed uneventful of late, there has been a flurry of academic activity that gets to the very heart of whether it is possible to beat the market. Though dull and esoteric on the surface three papers and a new book, all released in the last three… Read the article
The election of Emmanuel Macron as President of France marks an important shift in the narrative around European politics: not all popular discontent in Europe can be channelled as anti-EU or purely nationalistic.
For investors, the importance of Macron’s victory may be more about what has been rejected… Read the article
This piece is built upon Eric’s discussion about the complex nature of asset price determination at his own blog at philosophyofmoney.net earlier this week.
Here is a chart of the South Korean and US stock markets so far this year, alongside some news items from the Korean peninsula:
Despite the partial realignment of European long-dated government bond yields following the Euro crisis in 2012, there has been renewed divergence in yields in the last few years.
On a simplistic level, this runs contrary to improving fundamentals. While sharply accelerating Portuguese and Spanish debt levels partly explained… Read the article
Are asset markets “pausing for breath”? Since the relatively dramatic moves in many markets in the second half of last year, a lot of commentary suggests that things feel less eventful so far in 2017.
There are a number of biases evident in this view. Such commentary is hugely myopic… Read the article
Wednesday’s triggering of Article 50 was a non-event in financial markets; an event more symbolic than anything else. Meanwhile in the US, two Fed officials were discussing their views on what could happen to US interest rates.
The Boston Reserve President said that four rate “hikes”… Read the article
The negotiations around the withdrawal of the UK from the European Union have the potential to be the most significant structural change to the UK’s economy in a generation. Then again, the economic impact might be so small, we may not even notice.
The degree of clarity around these issues… Read the article
Please note the content on this website is for Investment Professionals only and should be shared responsibly. No other persons should rely on the information contained within this website.
OKWelcome to the M&G Multi Asset Team’s Allocation blog, previously known as the Episode blog. We have changed the name of our blog to resonate better with our readers in Europe, however, the content and purpose of the blog has not changed. The Allocation blog continues to aim to provide unique market perspectives from our dedicated team of experienced asset allocators.
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