“It’s difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.”
But when it comes to forecasting economic data for the first half of 2020, for once we know what’s coming:
So far, all we can truly know in… Read the article
The last few weeks brought about enormous changes to our society, to our personal lives and to the economic environment as we know it. The spreading of a deadly virus across the world prompted many governments to put out unprecedented restrictions on businesses and the wider population, while at the… Read the article
Two weeks ago, I wrote about how market responses to coronavirus fears – which had initially been relatively muted and discerning – were showing signs of episodic behaviour.
Since then those signs have turned to full blown panic, with correlated declines across most assets and sectors, and
On the 11th February there were two very different headlines on the coronavirus:
This was indicative of confusion that many felt at the time. Though he later qualified his statement, Dalio seemed to be reflecting a complacency in… Read the article
A question I have often been asked lately is “is the Greta effect going to last?”. How much influence is this public figure going to have and are the social movements she inspired really going to transform our society? The honest answer is I don’t know, but human psychology in… Read the article
The world is a profoundly surprising place. That was the case in 2019 – few people predicted a vintage year for both bonds and equities, with the latter outperforming despite no earnings growth. Already in 2020, we have been taken by surprise by events involving the US and Iran. What… Read the article
A version of this article originally appeared in the Financial Times last week.
There is a widespread assumption that the European Central Bank — like other major central banks — has reached the limits of monetary policy, and that the… Read the article
In a 1958 interview with CBS radio, Stanley Kubrick said the following about the impact of television on Hollywood:
“I think that despite the unhappy financial upheaval it has caused in the movie industry, it has also provided a very… Read the article
The cliched response to the UK election result was that Brexit uncertainty had been removed; this was what explained the immediate rally in Sterling and UK stocks, and a sell-off in Gilts.
But only a couple of days later we found ourselves straight back in a world of volatility:
Last week I wrote about the apparent confusion caused in some quarters by strong stock returns against a backdrop of weak macro and profits data. I argued that two important reasons behind this were the removal of rate pressure, and the unwind of the episode at the end of… Read the article
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OKWelcome to the M&G Multi Asset Team’s Allocation blog, previously known as the Episode blog. We have changed the name of our blog to resonate better with our readers in Europe, however, the content and purpose of the blog has not changed. The Allocation blog continues to aim to provide unique market perspectives from our dedicated team of experienced asset allocators.
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